Oscar Predictions (pull up a chair)

It’s the day of the Oscars (better late than ever), and a friend of mine who is in my Readership of Six has asked me to type out my Oscar predictions. I’d like to take this opportunity to not only reveal my predictions – such as they are – but to put down my thoughts about all things Oscar-related.

When the Academy went to 10 films, I thought that would add fun to my Oscar hunt. There’d be more films to hunt down, more time to find them, and probably double features would be attended. That wasn’t really the case. This Oscar race for me has actually become boring and anticlimactic – probably because this year's winners are obvious.

I’ve seen all 10 Best Pic nominees. As expected, only a few are actually worthy. Some of the most hyped films simply aren’t. For example, “Avatar”, while a visually stunning film, isn’t even a GOOD film, much less a great one. The story sucks and the acting isn’t relevant. I also think that the Academy is doing their part for race relations, as several of their films have this theme.

“Up in the Air” is extremely Oscar-worthy. It’s got a great script, wonderful direction, and fantastic acting all the way around. Thematically, it’s relevant and it’s one of the few nominees that aren’t that depressing. Probably why the only thing it will win is Best Adapted Screenplay, even though I understand that the book and the movie are a bit far apart.

“Precious” is a complete and utter waste of time. Even as I type that, I’m considering second thoughts. Did I miss something? Is this not as fake and melodramatic as I thought? I know that Mo’Nique will win Best Supporting Actress in a landslide, but I still don’t see it as deserved. (I’d love to see Kendrick, or even Gylenhaal win, but neither will happen.) I may actually sit down and watch this again, but it’s not that high on my list.

“Inglourious Basterds” was a fun romp. It’s a bit long in the tooth (though not as bad as “Shutter Island”) and it could have used a bit of editing, but there’s no doubt that the last third of this packs an explosive and highly dramatic punch. Plus, any film that’s got me to like Brad Pitt deserves something. Alas, though I fear the only thing it will win is Best Supporting Actor for Christoph Waltz. I'd like to see it capture Best Original Screenplay, in the spirit of spreading the wealth.

“Up” is the latest Pixar effort, one of two films on this list that most people probably actually saw, and is one of the reasons that they went to 10 films. Still doesn’t mean it needs to be here, though. For all the people who thought it was heartwarming and moving – it was cute. That’s not the same. Please, please please stop adding cute animal characters when they can’t be bothered to add the same attributes to humans. But then again, for deep children-themed films, I got to the Asian Market. It’s unfortunate, but the Americans just don’t seem to have this concept yet.

“A Serious Man” was one of those films that I wasn’t sure how to take. I really enjoyed it, and I do consider it Oscar bait, but unfortunately this is the “an honor to be nominated” films. The world isn’t ready for a Coen brothers movie like this, but I was. I thought it was funny, even though laughing at loud may not have been appropriate, but that could just be my upbringing.

“An Education” usually would have been Oscar bait, except that it’s really an acting showcase for newcomer Carey Mulligan (who isn’t new for long) and the very creepy Stellan Saarsgard. It’s another one of those films that I didn’t know how to take, primarily because it wasn’t like anything else. Take “Roman Holiday” in a blender, make it a smoothie, and this is what comes out.

“District 9” was brilliant, original, creative and will never in a million years win. This is the good thing about the expansion into 10 films – they did add one that actually needed attention. People either loved this movie or hated it; I know a lot of people who hated it. I hope this means more people will see it.

Ah…”The Blind Side”, which made me wish I was blind and deaf as I watched it. This film is subject to “The Dark Knight” rule, which means that a movie that made a boatload of money and isn’t a kids film had to get in. Unlike TDK, this film doesn’t have a story that’s worth telling (primarily because they seem to change the protagonist) and no one involved thinks that it’s accurate. Do I think Bullock will win? Unfortunately, I do. But I’m cheering with everything in me that Streep wins – and as sick of Streep as I get, I can’t believe I’m typing that. But even if Meryl doesn’t sweep up, she’ll be back again, no matter what film she does.

And last but not least – “The Hurt Locker”. It’s depressing, it’s realistic, it’s fantastic, and it might not be something I ever want to see again, but it needs to win BP, and Director, and most of the technical awards it’s also up for. If you haven’t seen this film, I urge you strongly to see it. And to the idiot who wrote the email that caused all the hoopla – banning you from the Ceremonies tonight isn’t enough. You should be blackballed for the rest of your life. Especially if the Blue People win.

Other Notable Oscar stuff:
• I’m looking forward to Baldwin and Martin hosting, but have no interested in the “It’s Complicated” jokes I’m sure to see.
• Jeff Bridges will win Best Actor, deserve it, look different, and cry.
• Mo’Nique’s acceptance speech will make me want to throw something at my TV.
• If Kathryn Bigelow claims she’s Queen of the World when she accepts, it’ll make my month.
• I’d like to see Jeff Bridges sing the Crazy Heart theme, but that’s not going to happen.

Oscar films I haven't see include: "The Messenger", "The Last Station", "The Young Victoria", "A Single Man", "Nine", "In the Loop", "Fantastic Mr. Fox", and any of the nomiated foreign films.

So that’s it. I appreciate your indulgence in reading this very long and unedited for time post this week. I’ll be eating cheesecake or something else sweet I have no business eating, and I’ll be accepting text messages throughout the show. Enjoy!